When Josh Jacobs steps onto the field at Lambeau Field on Monday night, he won’t just be carrying the ball—he’ll be carrying the weight of one of the most talked-about prop bets of the NFL season. The Green Bay Packers host the Philadelphia Eagles in a highly anticipated Week 10 rematch on Monday Night Football, Green Bay, Wisconsin, with sportsbooks rallying around a single number: 17.5 carries. Jacobs, 26, has become the unexpected centerpiece of betting markets, not because of flashy stats, but because of a pattern: when the lights are brightest, the Packers give him the ball. And this game? It’s as bright as it gets.
Primetime Pattern: Jacobs Thrives Under the Lights
It’s not random. In Week 2, on Thursday Night Football against the Washington Commanders, Jacobs carried the ball 22 times. Then, just weeks later on Sunday Night Football in Dallas, he logged 21 carries. Both games were national broadcasts. The week before this matchup, against Pittsburgh, he had only 14 carries—not because he was benched, but because the game slipped away early and the Packers were forced into passing mode. He was also nursing a minor ankle tweak. That’s the key: when the Packers control the clock, Jacobs is their weapon. And Monday night? They’re expected to do exactly that.
“The Packers absolutely believe in capping Jacobs’ carries if they can,” said Adam Levitan, CBS Sports’ lead NFL betting analyst. “But it’s also clear that when the lights are brightest, they’re the most willing to give him the football.” That’s the narrative driving the odds. DraftKings has the Over 17.5 carries at -101, and the Over 16.5 at -125. EV Analytics, a Las Vegas-based data firm, modeled Jacobs for 17.3 carries—just shy of the line, but enough to create a statistically positive expected value. That’s rare in prop betting.
The Eagles’ Defense: Tough, But Not Immobile
The Philadelphia Eagles aren’t pushovers. Under defensive coordinator Vic Fangio, 67, they rank 7th in the NFL in rush defense, allowing just 98.3 yards per game. But here’s the twist: they’ve faced fewer elite workhorse backs this season. Jacobs isn’t just a power runner—he’s efficient, patient, and a threat in the passing game. And that’s where the Eagles’ scheme might get stretched.
Covers.com’s computer model, updated November 8, 2025, also flagged Josh Jacobs’s receiving yards as a value play: Over 19.5 yards at -110. That’s not a fluke. Jacobs has 28 receptions through nine games. In primetime, he’s been targeted more. The Eagles have struggled with backs out of the backfield—especially when defenses commit to stopping the run. If Jordan Love can keep the chains moving with short passes, Jacobs becomes a safety valve. And that means more touches. More carries. More opportunity.
Betting Markets and DFS Implications
The numbers don’t lie. BetMGM has Jacobs at -150 to score anytime—a sign that oddsmakers believe he’s not just getting the ball, but crossing the goal line. He’s the favorite among all players on either team. And for DFS players? Matthew Freedman of TheBigLead listed Jacobs as his top flex play at $10,600 on DraftKings. That’s not a gamble—it’s a projection. If Jacobs hits 18 carries and 3 catches, he’s a top-5 RB for the night. Even if he doesn’t score, he’s likely to outproduce his price.
“This isn’t about hoping Jacobs breaks a 60-yard run,” said Michael Dixon, Splash Sports’ betting analyst. “It’s about volume. The Packers need to eat clock. The Eagles need to score fast. That means Jacobs gets 18, 19, maybe 20 touches. And that’s more than enough to cover the line.”
Why This Matters Beyond the Bet
This game is more than a rematch of last year’s NFC Wild Card thriller. It’s a statement for the Packers’ offense. After years of leaning on Aaron Rodgers’ arm, they’ve built a new identity: physical, methodical, run-first. Jacobs is the engine. And if he delivers on Monday night, it signals that Green Bay isn’t just competing—they’re evolving. For fans, it’s about pride. For bettors, it’s about value. For fantasy managers, it’s about dominance.
The Eagles, meanwhile, are a team built on speed and explosiveness. Jalen Hurts averages 32.1 rushing attempts per game—more than any other QB in the league. But they’ve yet to face a back who can grind out 20+ carries and still be effective. Jacobs could be the first.
What’s Next? The Ripple Effect
If Jacobs clears 17.5 carries on Monday night, expect his price to drop next week. Sportsbooks will adjust. But for now, the line is still undervaluing his role. This isn’t a longshot. It’s a calculated play backed by data, trend, and coaching behavior. And in the world of NFL betting, that’s gold.
Frequently Asked Questions
Why is Josh Jacobs’ carries prop so popular despite only topping 20 carries twice this season?
Because both of those 20+ carry games came in primetime—Thursday Night Football against Washington and Sunday Night Football in Dallas. The Packers consistently increase his workload on national broadcasts, and Monday Night Football fits that pattern perfectly. The sample size is small, but the trend is undeniable.
How does EV Analytics’ projection of 17.3 carries compare to the sportsbook line?
EV Analytics’ model projects 17.3 carries, which is 0.8 above the 16.5 line and 0.2 above the 17.5 line. In betting terms, that’s a positive expected value (EV) opportunity—especially at -125 odds on the 16.5 Over. Most models don’t find this kind of edge, making it a standout play.
Is Josh Jacobs likely to score a touchdown?
BetMGM lists him at -150 to score anytime—the most likely player on either team. He’s scored 7 touchdowns this season, with 4 coming in the red zone. The Eagles allow 4.3 yards per carry, and Jacobs excels in short-yardage situations. If the Packers control the clock, he’s likely to punch in at least one.
What’s the risk in betting Jacobs Over 17.5 carries?
The main risk is a blowout or early lead for Philadelphia. If the Eagles jump ahead quickly, Green Bay may abandon the run. But that’s unlikely: the Eagles’ offense is explosive, so Green Bay will need to control time. Also, Jacobs was healthy in both of his high-carry games—no injury concerns this week.
How does this game compare to last year’s NFC Wild Card matchup?
Last year, the Eagles won 22-10 in a low-scoring, defensive battle. Jacobs had just 12 carries. This time, the Packers are healthier, more balanced, and primed for revenge. They’ve improved their offensive line and are more committed to the run. Expect a different script—and more touches for Jacobs.
Should I bet the carries prop or the touchdown prop?
The carries prop offers better value. The -101 odds on Over 17.5 are fair given the data, and the 17.3 projection suggests it’s likely. The touchdown prop at -150 is tempting, but it’s binary—you either win or lose. Carries give you more room for error and higher expected value over time.
